Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 12.218861 14.002221 15.926177 18.152492 20.653974 23.373996 26.551679
2025-03-30 9.771062 12.219427 15.067127 18.609106 22.880444 27.848176 34.045223
2025-04-06 8.277902 10.957201 14.228366 18.488391 23.858798 30.370662 38.826886
2025-04-13 6.782138 9.466793 12.895501 17.553416 23.667522 31.365074 41.726454
2025-04-20 6.146464 8.967002 12.706027 17.964639 25.097741 34.354505 47.178035
2025-04-27 5.603391 8.514615 12.508093 18.304663 26.404427 37.205466 52.556927
2025-05-04 5.012537 7.919677 12.039593 18.200944 27.053954 39.163030 56.788172
2025-05-11 4.466201 7.325743 11.506372 17.938324 27.426558 40.717180 60.496436
2025-05-18 4.074346 6.920028 11.202176 17.964596 28.183486 42.811136 65.022439
2025-05-25 3.777024 6.628653 11.037198 18.170444 29.192599 45.287969 70.182646
2025-06-01 3.463855 6.278800 10.747705 18.152432 29.844725 47.251513 74.657189
2025-06-08 3.152122 5.899449 10.376599 17.969714 30.215487 48.791027 78.543399
2025-06-15 2.933388 5.663916 10.228127 18.144881 31.174419 51.296191 84.056845
2025-06-22 2.808175 5.580733 10.324892 18.725106 32.808749 54.915356 91.444665
2025-06-29 2.567413 5.263844 9.995499 18.560728 33.207628 56.599525 95.863747
2025-07-06 2.231855 4.736580 9.255678 17.636761 32.281145 56.112658 96.799639
2025-07-13 2.129583 4.644133 9.280969 18.044642 33.616283 59.327984 103.803473
2025-07-20 2.026107 4.538837 9.272889 18.387828 34.850809 62.421697 110.722829
2025-07-27 1.872317 4.316854 9.029221 18.283059 35.288902 64.197142 115.522100
2025-08-03 1.713184 4.067626 8.713224 18.019592 35.422739 65.452458 119.485268
2025-08-10 1.601750 3.908178 8.558144 18.045895 36.074310 67.611544 125.051803
2025-08-17 1.518818 3.802390 8.500471 18.252605 37.061895 70.386295 131.770396
2025-08-24 1.419023 3.649031 8.334388 18.234510 37.624880 72.430332 137.287681